So far this week we’ve looked at Lorcana’s strengths (game design) and weaknesses (product allocation, rarity distribution). So now it’s time to get into the armchair, and pundit like no one has pundited before. What does the future of Lorcana actually look like? Will this game be around in 2 years? What factors will determine its future?
The House of Mouse and the Burg of Ravens
Lorcana’s wide ranging appeal is likely going to be seen as the result of the use of Disney property. Ignoring whether or not this is completely true, this puts Disney in the driver’s seat here for the continued production of Lorcana as it exists, with the use of the Disney intellectual property.
And there are sooooo many things that have the potential to go wrong.
It’s worth noting that for the other large card games with sticking power, they almost always completely own the art and IP they’re working with. Pokémon is owned by the Pokémon Company, Yu-Gi-Oh is owned by Konami, and Magic is owned by Wizards of the Coast.
Sure, other card games that have IP from other franchises exist. There’s things like Weis Schwarz and MTG’s Universes Beyond. But these are side products, augmenting an existing game.
Here’s just a short list of problems I could see happening:
- Disney refuses to license any additional characters to Ravensburger for use, limiting space for growth.
- Disney ups the price of the license to the point that production of the game isn’t worth it.
- Disney approval and checks of licensed designs require a large amount of sign off, extending the production schedule of sets, and causing Lorcana to product sets at a much slower pace than its competitors.
And I’m sure more exist. The short version is that any breakdown of corporate goodwill or licensing agreements could kill Lorcana real quick.
Community Building
Disney can’t kill Lorcana faster than the fanbase could, though. Trading card games need an active community of players to survive and thrive. Do you know what doesn’t contribute to an active and healthy community? Booster packs costing the same amount as another game’s starter deck.
Some dude once said something about people being unable to survive off just bread. You can quote me on this one: card games can’t survive off whales alone. Right now, I suspect a majority of would-be players are priced out of the market for playing this game. Lorcana needs a casual player base.
Right now, Lorcana is not in the position to have that player base. That’s not to say you can’t buy singles and play the game cheaply. But the players Lorcana needs are the players who haven’t heard of something like TCG Player, and maybe don’t even known what TCG stands for.
If Lorcana isn’t able to actually meet demand and start selling to players who aren’t hyper invested, and who aren’t whales, they’re very unlikely to actually build the casual player base that is the fundamental foundation of a community. Without a community large enough to sustain prolonged interest, attract new players, and weather down time and bad sets/designs (because it will happen!), I predict Lorcana will shrivel and die.
Oh, and also because I’m that sort of person, I read through the entire set of terms and conditions for becoming part of their organized play program, and while I’m not a lawyer, I’m gonna be honest. Their whole thing seems smotheringly draconian compared to other programs I’ve seen of this sort.
Author Note: Just based off theming and demographics, I suspect the group that needs to worry about Lorcana coming for its lunch money isn’t MTG, but Pokémon. Lorcana has the potential for cross generational appeal in a non-threatening manner, which is much more Pokémon vibe than Magic’s. Y’know, given that the upcoming Magic set features people being eaten by a murderous village of candy, in a world suffering from the aftereffects of invasion by a group of sentient flesh robot hivemind. Other sets this year include the giant living horror murder hotel.
Expansive Design
But not every prediction for Lorcana’s future is a bummer.
The last thing Lorcana needs is design space to continue to release expansions and sets. And I actually think it has that in spades. First Chapter is a very restrained product, and if playing a game makes me think of 5-6 new mechanics, I guarantee the actual designer has a list including all of those, and an additional fifty in a text document somewhere.
There’s a lot of obvious space. Cards that care about color. Cards that are multicolor. More typal support, modal typal punish. Just going and borrowing twenty years worth of what Magic already did.
Now, because the people who make this game are likely smart, they also need to do this in a way that isn’t overwhelming, but I have confidence they can pull that off.
Conclusion
Lorcana has the potential to turn the big 3 of cards games into the big 4. However, it needs to surpass a significant number of challenges and risk to do so. Even ignoring their fans, Disney and Ravensburger need to maintain a good working relationship. But the biggest challenge is going to be Ravensburger’s ability to supply product to LGS’s and other stores where people can buy it at sane prices.
Funnily enough, the one area I don’t have any worries about is the game’s design and playability. It’s fun. It’s interesting. It’s relatively unique.
But it needs to be easier to get ahold of than, for example, illegal street drugs. And also have a lower price point.
If Lorcana can do all of the above, and survive the next two years, then Ravensburger might actually have made a popular, mainstream TCG.